What to Expect in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season ends this Sunday at Phoenix Raceway. With four drivers in contention, the race should come down to the wire! What should you expect from the championship fight? Here’s your ultimate guide to the title race at Phoenix. 

What Will You See in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race?

If you aren’t on the edge of your seat, you will be by the end of the race. The series has seen 18 unique winners in 2024, so this race is up for anybody to win. What should you expect from the NASCAR Cup Series finale? Here are four trends to guide the 2024 title fight. 

1. Contenders Lead the Way 

NASCAR’s current playoff format has existed since 2014, and the drivers have competed for the title at Phoenix since 2020. What is the common denominator for the past championship races? The four title contenders usually ride up front. However, drivers could incur engine issues or crashes, thus putting their cars in the garage. 

Why do the four contending cars typically run up front? Consider the teams and manufacturers and where they allocate their resources. They devote the best engineers and vehicles to these drivers, so it’s only natural they end up in the front. However, Ross Chastain won last year’s Phoenix race and broke the streak of champions winning the race itself. 

2. Manufacturer Cooperation

When you drive a Chevrolet, the manufacturer expects you to help other drivers with golden bowties on the front. Manufacturer consolidation has increased in the last decade as the drivers help others besides their teammates. We saw Team Chevy drivers help each other out at Martinsville, propelling William Byron to the final four.

You could also see cooperation among manufacturers if they have multiple drivers in the race. For instance, you may see two drivers from the same automaker share setup notes and what works best for their cars. They could also lean on their teammates in the garage to see what driving adjustments are necessary, especially if they have a strong history at Phoenix. 

3. Toyota Strength

Each of the three manufacturers is stronger at some tracks than others. However, Phoenix Raceway is a mixed bag that depends on race dynamics. If you had to pick a recent dominant manufacturer here, it would be Toyota. The Japanese automaker and Joe Gibbs Racing have performed very well here, with Christopher Bell winning the spring race. 

How can one NASCAR Cup Series manufacturer have a stronghold at a track? First, they could place a lot of emphasis on the racetrack by allocating resources for testing. It also boils down to driver preferences and the types of tracks they prefer. The communication with their crew chief significantly determines their success.  

4. Pit Strategy and Execution

The crew chiefs develop a pit strategy before each race and adapt it once the green flag flies. How many times will they change tires and add fuel? In the championship race, the stop that matters most is the last one. The crew that gets their driver out first could win the title. In 2021, Kyle Larson’s crew catapulted him into first place, and he didn’t let go of the lead. 

Fuel strategy is critical for the drivers, primarily when the laps wind down. The stock cars get about 5 miles per gallon (mpg), so they must be careful with the throttle and brakes. Fast speeds compromise the fuel economy, so you won’t see Toyota drivers in Corollas or Ford drivers in production Mustangs. If the race comes down to fuel mileage, it’ll be an exciting finish for all fans.

How Are NASCAR Cup Series Drivers at Phoenix Raceway?

In other sports, athletes play every game in the same type of venue. However, NASCAR drivers visit 10 different tracks in the postseason and over 25 for the entire year. With the title race at Phoenix Raceway, it favors some drivers more than others. How do the NASCAR Cup Series title contenders perform here? Get your tire snack bowl and drinks ready for this Sunday’s exciting finale.

1. Joey Logano 

Joey Logano just finds ways to get it done. When you think he’s out of it, the 34-year-old Connecticut native strikes when you least expect it. Phoenix Raceway has been kind to Logano despite his poor 34th-place showing back in March. He’s won here three times and twice in the November race, showing his prowess for the track. Look out for No. 22 to bring his A-game on Sunday, as he’s among the NASCAR Cup Series champions in the field. 

2. William Byron

William Byron won the Daytona 500 and three of the first eight races. Since the spring race at Martinsville, he’s been relatively quiet with a few good finishes here and there. However, he’s turned it up a notch in the playoffs. A sixth-place finish at Martinsville was just barely enough to put him in the final round! Will Byron capture the title that eluded him last season?

3. Tyler Reddick

Tyler Reddick has skill, luck and Michael Jordan on his side, so he comes to Phoenix with a slight advantage. His history at the racetrack has been a mixed bag, with his best performances coming in the spring race. The fall race has been a much different story with no top-15 finishes. However, the sample size is small with only one race at 23XI racing. Reddick is talented and aggressive, so he could be a factor with a fast car. 

4. Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney has finished outside the top 25 five times since Daytona and fell behind the 8-ball in the penultimate round. However, none of that mattered when he pulled off the walk-off win at Martinsville. Now, he gets to defend his championship in the desert. Blaney is excellent at Phoenix despite not grabbing a win, and he’ll be near the top on Sunday. 

Who Will Win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship?

Anything can happen on Sunday, regardless of past trends and performances. A pit stop mishap, an unlucky mechanical failure or a crash could quickly end your day. That said, the cream rises to the top in the championship race. Ultimately, we predict Joey Logano will win his third NASCAR Cup Series title and yet another driver’s championship for Ford.